Analysis of Friday's deals:

30M chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair also moved imposingly in the first half of Friday. Traders did not show any anxiety, but at the very beginning of the US trading session there was a surge of emotions due to the release of the most important macroeconomic statistics in America. Recall that a day earlier the results of the Bank of England meeting were announced in the UK, and the pound "flyed" well from side to side on Thursday. We also said that the market reaction to the BoE meeting could take up to a day, but even after these days it was quite difficult to say exactly how the market reacted to the key rate hike for the sixth consecutive time. The pound initially grew, then fell, then completely restored all losses. It also fell on Friday, but not as much as it could, given the strength and nature of US statistics. The labor market is not just in good shape, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, it is in excellent condition, and the unemployment rate continues to decline. Therefore, the US economy is now in a very strange state. On the one hand, the labor market and unemployment are very good, on the other hand, the GDP has been declining for two consecutive quarters, which causes everyone to fear a recession. We have formed a new downward channel for the pound, so at the moment the trend is downward.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

It is clearly seen on the 5-minute timeframe that the nature of the movement was approximately the same as in the euro. The pair moved mainly sideways throughout the European trading session, but it collapsed at the very beginning of the US session. We have already explained why this happened. We can only deal with trading signals. The first three trading signals to sell, from our point of view, should not have been worked out. Firstly, because it was very problematic, and perhaps even impossible, to react to them in time - the price fell too sharply at that time. Secondly, the last signals from this series were already formed when the pair went down a considerable distance. Therefore, we consider the fourth signal, near the level of 1.2033, to be the first signal for working out. After its formation, the price reached the nearest target level of 1.2062, but failed to overcome it. Therefore, a long position had to be closed manually with a meager profit of about 10 points. The last two signals near the level of 1.2062 should not have been worked out either, since there were already a few hours left before the market closed. And we do not recommend moving trades from Friday to Monday and generally trading at night.

How to trade on Monday:

The pound/dollar pair started a new downward trend on the 30-minute TF. It fell on Thursday and Friday thanks to US statistics and the BoE meeting, and these are two days out of four of this trend. Therefore, it is still difficult to say how much the pound will continue to decline. As well as to make an unambiguous conclusion about the market's reaction to all the information received at the end of this week. In general, the fundamental background supports the pair's further decline, but the descending channel is rather narrow to expect the price to stay inside it for a long time. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1898, 1.1967, 1.2033, 1.2062, 1.2106, 1.2186, 1.2205, 1.2245-1.2260. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled for Monday in the US and UK. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to during the day.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.